Let’s enjoy English 15th

【Will the fifth war in the Middle East break out?】

《Confrontation between Sunni and Shia intensified》

…soldiers who were dead in the war has increased rapidly, so the anxiety has spread over iSaudi Arabia. It’s raised the price on the petroleum so as to secure the national income, so the people have got dissatisfied in Saudi Arabia.

Then if creating an enemy outside the nation, the people will come together. It‘s classic situation in the dictatorship. Furthermore, if being in the crisis of explosive situation with Iran, the price on petroleum will rise, and they can take a little…

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【Will the fifth war in the Middle East break out?】

《Confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran has intensified》

…they would be able to take a little breathing room.

If thinking of it like that, Iran is same with Saudi Arabia with regard to the situation.

In short, if the relation between the two nation becomes tense, it will plus economically for both of the two countries, but if the situation escalates, the fifth war in the Middle East could have broken out.

There is the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It’s the course for a tanker which goes to Japan. If the war breaks…

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If the war breaks out, Japan may fall into the situation in which is in difficulty on existing.

【Qatar has been broken off with each nation around】

A small nation between the two of big nations tries to maintain a good relation among them so as to secure the safety on its own nation, but its own safety and relation among the two of big nations becomes worse. The international relation is very difficult. It means that the small nation is Qatar. It’s in the Qatar peninsula which runs out to the ahead of the Arabian Peninsula.

Two of the big nation is Saudi Arabia which is Sunni, and…

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【Qatar has broken off with each nation around it】

…and the other nation is Iran which is Shia.

It’s begun from the speech by the head of Qatar who made at the graduation ceremony in the military school May in 2017 like the next.

He said Iran had the powerful power which they the Islam and that area can’t ignore, it is important for them to join force with them.

The head said the gist like that, the state media in Qatar reported like that.

On the other hand, UAE and Saudi Arabia which are opposed to Iran were repulsive violently against Qatar, and blamed Qatar for it severely.

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【Qatar has broken off with each nation around it】

The government in Qatar excused itself that the state media got hacked and the false information was broadcast, but neither Saudi Arabia nor UAE could convince Qatar it was right, and announced they broke off with Qatar in the next month.

Saudi Arabia isn’t only the big power in the world of the Arabian but has two of big holy places like Mecca and Medina, so following the judgement by Saudi Arabia, other nations broke off with Katai like UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, the interim government in Yemen, eastern government in Libya which divided…

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【Qatar has broken off with each nation around it】

…like the eastern government in Libya which divided into east and west, Comoros, Maldives, and Mauritius.

By the way the top on Saudi Arabia is the king, but the one in Qatar is the head, and EAU is the gathering of the head. What’s difference between the king and the head? The head means the leader and the phrase of アミール is translated into the Japanese, but its position is lower by one rank than the king. The head of Qatar restrains itself, so he calls himself the head.

Saudi Arabia, EAU, and Qatar are originally the member of GCC.

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【Qatar has broken off with each nation around it】

GCC is abbreviation of Gulf Cooperation Council. It’s an international organization which has started in 1981, but except for Saudi Arabia, there are the small governments alone which takes the political power of the small Sunni in the Persian Gulf.

When the revolution broke out in Iran in 1979, and the revolutionary regime proclaimed it would carry out the export on revolution of assisting the residents of Shia who lived along the Persian Gulf.

Small nations were frightened at it so much that they made Saudi Arabia pull in among them.

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【Qatar has broken off with each nation around it】

GCC has been established like that, and Qatar found Iran to be the military threat, but a large amount of natural gas learns to be produced and to be rich, it’s taken policy which draws a line from each nation in Arab. Its symbol is the foundation on the satellite broadcasting. Its name is アルジヤジーラ, which means the peninsula.

It has been thought it means the Arabian peninsula, but when the author went to its headquarters for an interview, and asked the staff, where is the peninsula? The one who was in charge of external public relations…

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【Qatar has broken off each nation around it】

The one who was in charge of the public external public relations answered it’s Qatar.

《The satellite broadcast is a pain in the butt》

The satellite broadcast is a channel which adopts a news specially, and it has been founded by the previous head with his pocket money in 1996. Until then, it was the national broadcasting alone in the Arabic area and it’s just the medium of advertisement publicity organ for each nation. There had never been free report.

But the satellite broadcasting has brought into the free style of broadcasting in the Arab.

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【Qatar has broken off with each nation around it】

《The satellite broadcasting is a pain in the butt》

The free style of broadcasting is the way of America and of Europe. Decay on the government of each nation or the movement of anti government was reported actively and were supported by the people in Arab.

When America attacked Iraq in 2003, what is called the war in Iraq. While then CNN and FOX in America reported the news from the position of America, the satellite broadcasting did from the position of Arab which was attacked.

Besides, what is called the spring in Arab started from 2010.

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【Qatar has broken off with each nation around it】

《The satellite broadcasting is a pain in the butt》

The spring in Arab means the democratic movement in Arab, and as a result the activity on the influence of the anti government was reported energetically then, but it was a pain in the butt for the person with power, for there has never been the report which disobeyed against the order from the government in the Arabic area until then.

Each nation of Arab strengthen the sense of caution to Qatar which allows the broadcasting.

Mubarak government in Egypt collapsed by the spring in Arab….

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【Qatar has broken off with each nation around it】

《The satellite broadcasting is a pain in the butt》

Then the satellite broadcasting was the center of the influence on the movement of the anti government. It reported the Muslim Brotherhood greatly and the government in Qatar supported it.

The Muslim Brotherhood has adopted the Islamic fundamentalism, but it has made much of social welfare, so it has been supported by the people in the way of deep rooted. The government by the Muslim Brotherhood was established in Egypt in the election.

But it was overthrown with the coup d’tat by the...

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【Qatar has broken off with each nation around it】

《The satellite broadcasting is a pain in the butt》

But the government by the Muslim Brotherhood was overthrown with the coup d’etat by the military regime, and the military regime decided the Muslim Brotherhood was the organization of terrorism and is hostile to the organization.

Saudi Arabia has been alert that the influence on the Muslim Brotherhood strengthens. Qatar has supported the Muslim Brotherhood, so it supports the terrorism, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other nation have thought like that.

In addition, Qatar supports the…

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【Qatar has broken off with each nation around it】

《Satellite broadcasting is a pain in the butt》

Qatar supports both the influence of anti government in Lebanon next to Israel and Hamas which control Gaza of autonomous areas of Palestines.

It’s one of strategy by Qatar which tries to strengthen its influence in the Middle East, but causes friction around each nation in the Middle East.

Qatar has supported the organization of anti Israel and built good relation with Iran and maintained friendly relation with America.

Though few people know there is the biggest base on the Air Force …

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【Qatar has broken off with each nation around it】

《Satellite broadcasting is a pain in the butt》

Though few people know there is the biggest base on the Air Force belonging to America in Qatar. It was the base so as to carry out the cleanup operation on ISIS. It’s diplomatic policy on the tightrope, the diplomacy which is always dangerous.

【What is a crown prince in Saudi Arabia?】

Speaking of the crown prince under a king, we tend to think it’s the son, but it’s located the next king in the world, so it doesn’t always mean that it has to be the son in some places. The next crown prince…

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【What is a crown prince in Saudi Arabia?】

The next crown prince used to be the nephew of the king in Saudi Arabia until then, but the crown prince changed in Saudi Arabia June in 2017. It’s changed into the son of the king. The name of the new crown prince is Muhammad bin Salman. The bin means the son, so his name means the son of Salman.

Speaking of Saudi Arabia, the amount of oil deposit is the most in the world. When the king Salman visited Japan March in 2017, he chartered lots of cars with a Chauffeur or kept lots of rooms on five stars hotel and got into the news. Lots of people …

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【What is a crown prince in Saudi Arabia? 】

Lots of people seemed to be surprised at him, wondering if how rich he was.

Saudi Arabia means Arabia in the Saudi. The whole nation is the possession for the family of the Saudi. It‘s absolute monarchy in which the family of Saudi grasps all the powers. The King in Saudi Arabia has a honorific title of the guardian on two holy places.

There are three sacred places on Islam. Mecca where there is the palace, Medina where there is the tomb of Muhammad who was a prophecy and Jerusalem where there is the dome made of rock.

Jerusalem is the holy…

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【What is a crown prince in Saudi Arabia? 】

Jerusalem is the holy place for both of Jew and Christianity as well, and has been governed by Israel at present.

Saudi Arabia has protected two holy places of the three ones, so its authority on Islam heightens among Islam. Moreover, a large scale of oil field has been discovered in Saudi Arabia in 1938, so it learned to have mighty power economically since then.

The family of Saudi entered into agreement with the leader of Islam extremist, Muhammad Ibin Abd al Whahab. The family of the Saudi takes charge in politics, and Abu al Wabbab religion.

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【What is a crown prince in Saudi Arabia? 】

Islam is roughly divided into Sunni and Shia and the teaching on Abd alWahhab belongs to Sunni, but it’s very strict and is called the sect of Wahhab.

Man and woman is separated strictly in Saudi Arabia, and the woman can’t show her face to other men except for her family members. Even in Macdonald, the seat has been separated for men and women.

Women have been regarded as the ones who should be protected, so they had never been admitted to drive a car. The constitution on Islam is Koran and Sunna. Sunna is the one in which the speech and action…

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【What is a crown prince in Saudi Arabia?】

Sunna is the one in which speeches and actions on Muhammad who was the prophet was described. The one who has the sovereignty is Allah, for there is the way of thinking that a person can’t change the constitution at will.

Religious precepts have been observed strictly in Islam, and drinking alcoholic beverage is forbidden. When going into Saudi Arabia, our baggage will be checked thoroughly whether or not we bring into alcoholic beverage.

Its punishment is also unique. Carrying out the death penalty is beheading. There is a congregation every…

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【What is a crown prince in Saudi Arabia?】

There is a congregation every Friday and after congregation the public execution is carried out then. If committing theft, its right arm is cut off. The custom has been observed even at present.

《Government owned oil company is listed and being able to get a large amount of money》

It was 1902 when the present Saudi Arabia was established. The king retook Riyadh which is the ancestral legacy and decided it’s the capital in Saudi Arabia. The number on wives is fixed to until four. As the slavery remained in Saudi Arabia, it is said the king had lots…

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【What is a crown prince in Saudi Arabia? 】

《State operated company is listed and being able to get the large amount of money》

It is said the king had lots of wives on slavery except for legal wives. The number on wives is fixed until four in Saudi Arabia, but a slave isn’t included in the calculation.

As to the number of wives, it’s all right as long as it’s kept four, so it is said repeating divorce makes the number of wives be more in total. The number on children is fixed 89, boys are 52, but its exact number has never been clear.

But the names of four wives who had a baby who was the…

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【What is a crown prince in Saudi Arabia?】

《State operated oil company is listed and being able to get a large amount of money》

But names of four wives who had a baby is remained as record, especially the third princess Hassa is the dearest one, and seven boys between her and the king are called Sudairi seven, for the Princess is from the Sudari. Saruman who is the present king is also one of Sudairi seven.

When the king of Abdullahaziz was dead in 1953, his son ascent to the throne but he was abdicated the throne because of his misadministration, so his half brother became the king.

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【What is a crown prince in Saudi Arabia?】

《State operated oil company is listed and…》

The king handled petroleum as weapon for getting money in the fifth war in the Middle East, and what is called oil money was flowed into Saudi Arabia and the present oil rich nation has been established then, but he was assassinated by his nephew, and his half brother ascent to the throne. After that the half brother became the king one after another.

The present king of Saruman comes to the throne, his half brother becomes the prince, but the prince was discharged before long, and other half brother…

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【What is a crown prince in Saudi Arabia? 】

《State operated oil company is listed and being able to get a large amount of money》

…and the other half brother became the king, then the one who became the deputy crown prince was the son of Saruman. Everyone thought the king made his son the prince, and he becomes as everyone expected.

If the one who built the present Saudi Arabia is the first generation, other kings after him are the second generation, if the princess of Saruman becomes the king, then the third generation is born.

The new prince was the age of 31 when being on the throat.

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As old age of kings and princes continued it’s epoch making. He seems to take command on policy in Saudi Arabia at present. When being appointed the king, he’s proceeded new reform like admitting women to drive a car one after another.

A writer who was critical to him was murdered at the consulate of Saudi Arabia at Istanbul in Turkey in 2018, and he is suspected on the involvement. His name will appear the news over Saudi Arabia in the future.

【OPEC came to agreement with decrease on production of petroleum】

Even if the price on the petroleum drops, they’d be patient with it.

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【OPEC came to agreement with decrease on the production of petroleum】

The situation on endurance contest by countries producing petroleum continued, but they have reached to the limit at last, and decrease the production on the petroleum and to raise its price. The countries producing petroleum tried to take a lead.

OPEC held emergency general assembly and decided to decrease the production on petroleum after eight years. It continued to produce at the highest level for two years until then, but reached to a tentative agreement of decreasing to seven hundred thousand barrel a day.

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【OPEC came to agreement on decreasing the production on petroleum】

Barrel is a unit on the crude oil and some a hundred and fifty nine liter. The crude oil is the one which is dug out from underground and isn’t refined.

OPEC is an international organization in which fourteen oil producing countries join from the Middle East, Africa and South America. Controlling the amount of production on the petroleum and preventing its price from moving extremely.

The price on the petroleum continued to drop from summer around 2014. Some people would realize the price on gasoline dropped.

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【OPEC came to agreement on decreasing production of petroleum】

If the price on the petroleum drops, the one which is in difficulty is the country producing petroleum, so the countries producing petroleum tried to decrease the amount of production and to raise the price at the general assembly in 2014, but Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait were opposed it, and the amount of production didn’t decrease.

As a result, the brake to dropping the price on the petroleum didn’t work out at all and the price dropped more and more.

Why didn’t Saudi Arabia and others agree with decrease on the production?

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【OPEC came to agreement on decreasing production of petroleum】

The shale oil in America prevented them from decreasing the production on petroleum. A large amount of natural gas and petroleum lie underground in America. The resources are in the shale which is in the depth more than two thousand meters underground.

Innovation in technology has made America dig the natural gas and petroleum from the underground from 2006. They call it the revolution in the shale.

America used to be the biggest country importing petroleum and natural gas until then, but decreased the amount of import…

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【OPEC came to agreement on decreasing production of petroleum】

…but decreasing the amount of importing natural gas and petroleum so there was superfluous petroleum all over the world. In addition America doesn’t join in the OPEC, so even if OPEC decreased America doesn’t participate in OPEC, so the share on the petroleum would be taken from OPEC, Saudi Arabian should thought like that.

If the price on the petroleum drops, the cost on the shale oil will drop and the movement on the new development of the shale oil would stop, Saudi Arabia thought like that.

If the development on the shale…

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【OPEC came to agreement on decreasing production of petroleum】

If the development on the shale oil stops, the excess on the crude oil all over the world would be solved and the price on the crude oil would raise again. In short, Saudi Arabia has waged what is called a chicken game by losing a battle to win a war 肉を切らせて骨を断つ.

It was a successful at a time, for the small and medium sized business which dug the shale oil in America went bankrupt one after another, and new digging on the shale oil stopped.

On the other hand, the damage on Saudi Arabia and AEU were serious. The budget on the…

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【OPEC came to agreement on decreasing production of petroleum】

The budget on the government of Saudi Arabia fell into deficit, so not only the salary on the public officers and high officers in the government of Saudi Arabia but various subsidies on its nations were decreased, so the dissatisfaction among the nations in Saudi Arabia were heightened.

《Is the effect on raising the price for the time being?》

Saudi Arabia intervened in the civil war at Yemen in the south end of the Saudi Arabian Peninsula. The civil war between Sunni which was the current regime and Shia which was the armed …

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【OPEC came to agreement on decreasing production of petroleum】

《Is the effect on raising the price for the time being? 》

The civil war between Sunni which was the current regime and Shia which was the armed organization continued in Yemen. The armed organization was supported by Iran which was the same Shia.

Saudi Arabia which is opposed to Iran and acknowledged itself as the leader of Sunni feared the influence on Shia of Iran expanded, and supported the current regime and sent the military force to Yemen and continued the air raid on the armed organization. Its military expenditure was…

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【OPEC came to agreement on decreasing production of petroleum】

《Is the effect on raising the price for the time being? 》

Its military expenditure was enormous. Its foreign exchange currency reserves used to be some seven hundred thirty seven billion dollar in 2014, but it decreased to some five hundred fifty five in 2016.

Saudi Arabia agreed with the decrease on the production of petroleum so as to escape its financial crisis. There was no other way out. The decrease on the production of petroleum may have been beneficial on the business of the shale oil in America, but wanted to increase …

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【OPEC came to agreement on decrease production of petroleum】

《Is the effect on raising the price for the time being? 》

…but wanting to increase the income from the petroleum as more as possible it can, Saudi Arabia thought like that, and Russia sympathized with it as well.

As to the petroleum,President Putin announced freezing increase or decrease. There was no other choice. He intended to keep pace with the plan of on OPEC.

Russia which doesn’t join in the OPEC decreased the income on foreign currency because of dropping the price on the petroleum, so it suffered from the financial…

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【OPEC came to agreement on decrease production of petroleum】

《Is the effect on raising the price for the time being? 》

…so Russia suffered from the financial situation which didn’t go well. Furthermore, its annexation on the Crimea Peninsula caused economic sanction by America and Europe, so it’s looked forward to raising the price on petroleum.

With the receiving the announcement by the President Putin, the price on petroleum tended to change into the raise in the world. The movement has influenced over the stock price as well.

Nations producing petroleum decreased foreign exchange…

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【OPEC came to agreement on decreasing production of petroleum】

《Is the effect on raising the price for the time being? 》

As nations producing petroleum decreased foreign exchange reserves, it lost the extra money on stock investment, but its financial circumstance goes well, it may make the stock investment revive. They have expected like that.

If the price on petroleum raises, it may have had good influence over the international economy, but the price on the petroleum products like gasoline kerosene, and plastic would also raise, so it would be troublesome for us the consumers.

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【OPEC came to agreement on decreasing production of petroleum】

《Is the effect on raising the price for the time being? 》

What happens on the price of the petroleum from now on? Experts have foreseen the raise on the price of the petroleum for the time being. Its reasons are two.

The one is increasing the shale oil. As the price on the petroleum remains stagnant, corporations which don’t have healthy financial condition were weeded out, but the ones which had the solid financial condition can survive. If the price on the petroleum rises, they will start to dig and increase the amount of…

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【OPEC came to agreement on decreasing production of petroleum】

《Is the effect on raising the price for the time being?》

…they will start to dig and increase the amount of the product, the decrease on the product in OPEC crosses off accounts then.

The second reason is the outlook on agreement of decreasing product by OPEC is gray area. The plan which was decided was decreasing production alone. As every country doesn’t want to decrease the amount of product, the whole amount of the product wouldn’t decrease very much, would it? It may be peace of mind element for the ones who are worried …

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It may have been a peace of mind element for the ones who are worried about the price on the kerosene rises.

【Impatience that the kerosene isn’t sold】

The Middle East is also the place where we’ve realized it’s too fast news.

Islamic State which went on a rampage like the synchronized terrorist attack in Paris in 2015, and the young joined in the Islamic State from all over the world, seeking after the place where they should be dead.

Containment policy by each nation including America caused the Islamic State to be devastated. Instead, the one which has come to the surface is the…

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【Impatience that the kerosene isn’t sold】

Instead, the one which comes to the surface is the opposition on the two of great power between Saudi Arabia and Iran. There is the history of the confrontation between Saudi Arabia which is Sunni of Islam and Iran of Shia in the background.

When Qatar showed a willingness close to Iran, each nation of Sunni around Qatar broke diplomatic ties with Qatar. Saudi Arabia and AEU exported fresh food like vegetable to Qatar until then.

Instead of the Saudi Arabia and AEU, Iran transports the vegetable to Qatar by air, and Qatar has approached Iran more.

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【Impatience that kerosene isn’t sold】

《Mentality on the tribal nation》

Its key man is Muhammad bin Salman who graded up to the crown prince of Saudi Arabia in 2017.

The Middle East has confronted the time of post oil. There was never outlook that the fossil fuel will dry up in the future, so we have to build a nation in which we don’t have to rely on the petroleum. There was none of the long lookout until recently.

But the gas and diesel cars are prohibited to be sold and changed into an electric car in EU. There has been the current of the time at present. Extrication from dependence…

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【Impatience that the petroleum isn’t sold】

《The mentality on the tribal nation》

Extrication from dependence on oil. We’ve heard of the phrase often before, but the time when the petroleum isn’t sold would arrive before it, so Dubai in UAE aims at being the global financial city. Abu Dhabi attracts an art museum and university from overseas so as to build a cultural city.

The crown prince Muhammad bin Salman has founded a tremendous fund of which scale is ten trillion yen with Masayoshi Son who is the president of the Soft Bank and invested in the pioneering industry for each nation.

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【impatience that the petroleum isn’t sold】

《Mentality on the tribal nation》

Women used to be forbidden to drive a car or to go to the movie theater in the Middle East because they have the religious precepts in Islam, but they have removed the restriction, but the conservative group in Saudi Arabia was opposed to the movement.

A royal prince and high officers in the government were accommodated to a hotel so as to tie their tongues. It’s excuse was exposing corruption, so no one can disobey Muhammad bin Salman.

But a famous writer who was from Saudi Arabia criticized the movement.

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【Impatience that the petroleum isn’t sold】

《Mentality on the tribal nation》

The famous writer was murdered in the consulate general belonged to Saudi Arabia in Turkey October in 2018, and it came into the open, so the world was shocked at it. In addition, it’s a cruel execution of being cut down when being alive. Is it the indication from the government in Saudi Arabia or the indication from the crown prince himself?

Let’s think it over carefully here. To tell the truth, Arab has the mentality of the age of provincial wars in Japan long ago. It’s not the nation state but it judges a…

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【Impatience that the petroleum isn’t sold】

《Mentality of the tribal nation》

…it judged its profit, honor, or dishonor as the unit of the tribe. In the first place, the name of Saudi Arabia means the family of Saudi in Arabia. They have the sense that the whole area is one of possessing for the wealthy family. It’s the age of provincial war which there isn’t a sword nor a spear but a tank or missile, so it develops into a crisis.

As to the religion, it’s the same. Islam was formed at the beginning of the 7th century. Its history is a slightly over 1400 years. It’s the youngest religion in…

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【Impatience that the petroleum isn’t sold】

《Mentality on the tribal nation》

It’s the youngest religion in the great three religions. Speaking of the 1400s in the Christianity, it’s the 15th century. It’s the right middle of the dark medieval period when the witch hunting was done actively. It becomes modernized through the religious reform, but it was much later.

If thinking it over with the perceptive of our own who live in modern society, we’re horrified at the situation in the Middle East, but they are in the historical step, taking it into account, and we’re forced to think it over.

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We the Japanese need the fossil fuel still more. We should make much of rare position of having good relation with each nation in the Middle East, Iran and Israel.

【Growing pains on China】

《The way for an emperor for Xi Jinping》

As achieving the GDP in the second rate in the world, and has done what it wanted in the South China Sea. He doesn’t hesitate to engage in war with America. Xi Jinping who tries to complete dictatorship which exceeds Mao Zedong. What will happen the relation between Japan and China?

【Its economy has reached the peak】

If comparing it with the growth on a…

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【Its economy has reached the peak】

If comparing the situation on the nation with the growth on a person, it is sometimes easy to understand. China is a youth who is in adolescence, for China showed the target on the economic growth rate in 2015 dropped 7.7% which was the one in the previous year to around 7.0. It was indicated by the Prime Minister Ri Keqiang in the National people’s Congress.

It is frequently expressed the National people’s congress is equal to the National Assembly in Japan. The policy on the whole nation is decided there in the two of them, its role resembles the…

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