Let’s enjoy English 15th

【Its economy has reached the peak】

Both of the roles on the national people’s congress in China and on the National Assembly in Japan resemble, so we tend to express like that, it can’t be helped, but it is liable to cause a misunderstanding.

The National Assembly in Japan is made up with the member who are chosen from the election by the Japanese, but the national people’s congress isn’t through the election by the Chinese.

A delegate in the national people’s congress is a representative from each place in the whole China, but the organization of the communist party each place adopts and…

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【its economy has reached the peak】

…and ordered the delegate to go to Beijing. There is no room to choose by the nation. Representatives on ethnic minority appear at the national people’s congress, wearing its national cloth. We can understand it’s a ceremony.

The content which is discussed at the national people’s congress is decided by the communist party in China beforehand. The national people’s congress is the organization which confirms it.

But when voting a plan or the human resource on the government, the vote which is opposed to the plan appears, so even if the delegate who was…

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【Its economy has reached the peak】

…so even if the delegate who was adopted by the communist party in China, it turned out that the ones who are dissatisfied with the policy on the government to some exten.

Anyway, a thing which we should pay attention is China dropped the goal on the economic growth rate.

Speaking of the economy in China, it accomplished the high economic growth which was around 10% continued from 1990s to 2000s. A child of a man grows taller rapidly from Junior high school to high school. The economy in China resembles it.

The economy in Japan accomplished the economic …

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【Its economy has reached the peak】

The economy in Japan achieved the high growth economy of which growth rate is often over 10% in 1960s. Whiel Japan became rich suddenly, Japan suffered from the growth distortion which is the problem on the pollution.

China also suffers from growth pain at present, and its typical one is the pollution in the air.

A documentary program produced by a newscaster for itself was open to the public at the free video in the internet immediate before the national people's congress.

It was reported on the seriousness of the air pollution which is typical of PM2.5

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【Its economy has reached the peak】

Immediate after it was open to the public, electronic edition on the organ of the communist party reported the document, it was epoch making because it was　pushed by the communist party in China.

In spite of the long document program whichw was over 1 hour and 43 minutes　its views were over a hundred and fifty million in the Chinese Continent. The document program became a blockbuster of which view was over three hundred million at once.

《Inconvenient truth is forbidden to broadcast》

But no one learned to be able to see it in China before long.

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【Its economy has reached the peak】

《Inconvenient truth is prohibited to broadcast》

Though seriousness on the air pollution is charged with, criticizing government and communist party was avoided carefully, and in the beginning it had a high opinion even inside the communist party, its feedback was so big that the publicity department on the communist party feared it and forbade to broadcast and access to the site of the video was shut out in China.

Though there is a problem in the society, forbid to broadcast. It's the real condition in China at present, but China understands what the....

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【Its economy has reached the peak】

《Inconvenient truth is prohibited to broadcast》

…but China understands what the problem is, so it was forced to change the policy on the economic growth.

As for a person, when being the around age of high school, its height reaches the peak. The economic growth on the nation is the same.

The brake worked out on the economic growth in Japan from 1970s to 1980s. If securing 1% a year, it’s very fine at present.

The society in China has been troubled by being rapid aging society. As it continued one child policy, the declining birth rate and aging…

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【Its economy has reached the peak】

《Inconvenient truth is prohibited to broadcast》

…the declining birth rate and aging population made progress is so fast that its speed is by far quicker than Japan, labor population whose age is from 15 to 59 begins to decrease from 2013. China can’t get back the growth in the past. The communist party has accepted it reluctantly. Xi Jinping Government calls it a new normal situation.

The time of unregulated land development project and the economy of export driven was over, and changed into industrial structure of domestic demand driven, making much of…

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【Its economy has reached the peak】

《Inconvenient truth is forbade to report》

…making much of environment, and heightening the rate on the advanced technology.

In short, being aware of changing from a developing country to an advanced developing nation, and going ahead on the way to the developed country.

The phrase of 保八 used to be yelled frequently in China around 2010. It means securing 8% of economic growth rate. The growth rate of 8％ is indispensable so as to accept the youth who graduated from university every year.

But the whole economy becomes big, even if without maintaining 8%…

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【its economy has reached the peak】

《Inconvenient truth is prohibited to broadcast》

….the chance of employment will be born.

Cost of employees becomes high in China which is an advanced developing nation. Other nation can’t produce in low price like in the past, the power of factories advancing into China by each nation in the world including Japan have stopped, especially for Japan, there is the risk on anti Japan, and the weak yen has gone ahead, so lots of Japanese companies hesitate to advance into China.

Without being independent on the investment from the outside, China has to try…

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…China has to try to grow with its own domestic demand. How does it move forward. The look of being worried about is the adolescence as nation. A child who is in the adolescence is hard to handle, so we hope China escapes from the adolescence quickly and become a thoughtful grown up.

【The system on the stock market in China】

The stock market in China fell suddenly June in 2015, and the world economy was shaken greatly by it. The government in China was in panic and tried to stop the drop suddenly, with the intervention of not being afraid of being seen, but its effect was limited.

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【The system on the stock market in China】

Why did the stock in China fall suddenly? The author said he was going to express from the basic knowledge on the stock market in China.

There are two of the stock exchanges in China. The one is Shanghai and the other is Shenzhen. It isn’t in Beijing which is the capital of China. There are lots of venture companies in Shanghai and an enterprise which represents China is listed on the stock market in Shanghai.

Both of the stock markets are divided into the stock which is billed in dollar and is done in Chinese yuan. A foreign investor can useI the…

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【The system on the stock market in China】

A foreign investor can use the one which is billed in dollars alone, and an individual and companies of which nationality is China can use the one which is done in Chinese yuan. Free buying and selling the stock by foreigners is allowed limitedly, so we can understand the closed nature on the stock market in China enough.

When reporting the movement on the price of the stock in China, the one which is used is Shanghai Composite Index. It works together at the both of the stock exchanges, but the share on the one which is billed in Chinese yuan is…

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【A system on the stock market in China】

…but the share on the stock market which is billed on Chinese yuan is by far more than the one in dollars.

The one who has an influence over the up down on the stock price in China is an individual investor who accounts for 80% in the dealings, so the falling suddenly this time the stock on the Shanghai stock market in which lots of individual investors join fell suddenly.

The damage on the individual investors in China must have been oceans of money on fall suddenly this time, and there was the front stage on the bubble burst of the real estate there

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【A system on the stock market in China】

The bubble burst on the real estate in China caused an uproar in 2015, for there were some signs of declines on the sales of the newly build apartment house which were sold like hotcakes each place in China.

The authority in China which had the sense of crisis on the overheating in the market of residence raised the rate on the indispensable down payment 頭金 for the purchase of the second residence so as to become calm the bubble.

As a result, the fund from the individual investor who escaped from the market on residence flowed into the stock market.

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【A system on the stock market in China】

In consequence, the Shanghai Composite Index raised to two and a half times a year.

If the stock market begins to rise suddenly, amateurs who had no relation with the stock will start the stock investment. It‘s a sad nature on a person in all countries. China was also none of the exception.

But the amateur investors in Chain were different from the ones in Japan who were usually cautious, and adopted adventurous way. They started the margin trading.

Buying the stock and it’s collateralized and borrowing the fund from the brokerage firm and selling…

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【A system on the stock market in China】

…and buying and selling the stock with the fund.

It’s so risky that the amateur shouldn’t handle it, but there were lots of people who challenged the risk boldly in China.

《They didn’t know the risk on the margin trading? 》

Why being unable to recommend the amateur should do it? For example, let’s suppose there was one million yen at hand and started stock investment with the money.

As investing one million yen in stocks, if the stock price goes up by 10%, its profit is one hundred thousand yen. The one who thought the profit is little starts the…

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【The system on the stock market in China】

《They didn’t know the risk on the margin trading? 》

The one who thought the profit is little starts the margin trading. Let’S suppose I bought the stock with the million yen, and it was collateralized by a brokerage firm and borrowed ten million yen from the brokerage firm.

Trading stocks with the ten million yen, and if 10% goes up, the profit is one million yen. The seed money which is one million yen becomes two million yen, so the seed money becomes double.

On the other hand, if goes down by 10%, the seed money disappears in an instant.

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【The system on the stock market in China】

《They didn’t know the risk on the margin trading? 》

The authority entertained misgiving because there were lots of people who dabbled in the margin trading easily, and started to strengthen the regulation on the margin trading June. It served as a trigger and the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 30% from the middle of June to the middle of July.

The decline on the stock price has a great influence over the margin trading. If the decline on the stock price becomes 20%, its loss is two million yen. The brokerage firm was worried about that the…

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【The system on the margin trade in China】

《They didn’t know the risk on the margin trade》

The brokerage firm which was worried about that the investors couldn’t pay the loss and took the risky step of loss cut. It means selling the stock which was collateralized.

In the stock market where there are lots of people who do the margin trading, the stock price starts to go down once, the brokerage firms starts to do loss cut all at once and sells the stock.

Selling stocks caused to sell other stocks, the stock market spurs on the falling suddenly halfway through.

The government in China…

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【The system on the margin trading in China】

《They didn’t know the risk on the margin trading》

The government in China which was in panic started in dealings with low stock price regardless of its appearance. Not only dropping the interest rate, being easy to borrow money, but forced the brokerage firms to buy the stock.

Twenty one brokerage firms announced that they were going to buy the stock voluntarily. It seems buying voluntarily on the surface, but it couldn’t have been. The government ordered the brokerage firms to buy the stock by force.

The trust on the security market wasn’t….

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【The system on the margin trading in China】

《They didn’t know the risk on the margin trading? 》

The trust on the stock market wasn’t heightened in the situation, for an easy idea would be born among the investors in China, if being in difficulty, the government would figure it out. Its moral hazard, moderation collapses.

What is the real situation in China?

China announced that the growth rate on the GDP was 7% from April to June in 2015. It was by far higher than it was expected in the beginning, but the sense of distrust against the government in China was strong, and the suspicion was…

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【The system on the margin trading in China】

《They didn’t know the risk on the margin trading? 》

…and a suspicion was whispered, is it by far lower really, isn’t it?

The spokesman repeated like the next at the press conference. GDP in China has never been overestimated. The GDP reflects on the actual situation.

China is conscious that it has been doubted by the whole world. It insisted that they have never manipulated numbers on the GDP, but it seems that they can do the number on the price index at least.

【We can’t trust the data on GDP】

Speaking of the black Monday, it indicated the…

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【We can’t trust the data on GDP】

Speaking of the black Monday, it indicated the plunge in sharp stock price in America October in 1987. Dow Jones Industrial average at the stock exchange in New York dropped by no less than by 508 dollars from the last week, and led to the stock price crash each nation in the world in the next day, and caused the spontaneous worldwide decline in stock value.

But the stock price fell over a thousand dollars at a time at the stock market in New York on the Monday August in 2015, it’s the lowest price in the history, but it revived until the closing price.

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【We can’t trust the data on GDP】

When compared to the previous week finally, it was weak dollar of 588. 40 finally. Without being able to return the stock price, it could have been called the Black Monday.

Then the author stayed in Vietnam so as to interview, the English newspaper in Vietnam reported it was the Black Monday for Vietnam, for the plummet broke out at the stock market in Vietnam as well.

The reason why the share price plunge occurred was anxiety on the economy in China spread over each nation in the world. A feeling of distrust has spread over the world. The economy in China…

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【We can’t trust the data on GDP】

The economy in China must have been by far worse than the data announced by the Government in China. If saying it clearly, it’s the suspicion that the economic growth rate announced by the government in China is the number manipulated artificially.

The feeling of distrust on the economy in China heightened because the central bank in China dropped the Chinese yuan greatly August in 2015.

The yen in Japan changes every day against euro and dollar, for the exchange rate changes according to demand and supply by wanting to exchange yen and dollar. We call it…

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【We can’t trust data on GDP】

We call it the floating exchange rate system.

On the other hand, China has adopted the system of managed floating exchange rate. The central bank in China fixes the standard value on the exchange rate and announces it every day. The change from the standard value within two percent on the upper and lower limits of exchange rate is allowed.

For example, if the standard value that 1 dollar is 6 yuan is announced, the change from 5.88 to 6.12 is allowed during the dealing on the day. It isn’t allowed to change so much. It’s managed like that.

The central bank in…

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【We can’t trust the data on GDP】

The central bank in China has moved the standard value to the strong Chinese yuan little by little for a long time. If the Chinese yuan is high, all the goods overseas become reasonable for the tourists from China, so they buy the goods so much.

But the central bank in China dropped the standard value three days in a row August, and dropped the standard value by no less than 4.5 point in total then.

China took a risky step of the weak Chinese yuan because it would try to make its export promote, trying to activate its economy. Everyone thought like that.

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【We can’t trust the data on GDP】

But China announced its economic growth rate was 7% from April to June. Then the spokesman repeated at the press conference that the GDP isn’t overestimated in China. It reflects on the truth. He emphasized it wasn’t false, but it made us feel the suspicion.

《The economic growth rate is by far lower?》

The author said us to think it over carefully. When announcing the GDP at the press conference in Japan, no one says there was no false on those numbers. It could not have been.

We can’t trust the GDP in China. That feeling of distrust spread over the world.

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【We can’t trust the data on GDP】

《The economic growth rate is by far lower?》

A whistle blowing website opened the diplomatic cable to the public December in 2010, and it caused to spread of the feeling of distrust over the world.

When the prime minister Li Keqiang was the secretary for the communist party in Liaoning, he showed the opinion that the statistics on the GDP in China was artificial that he couldn’t trust it in 2007.

When the ambassador belonged to America who stayed in China had a meal with Li Keqiang, the ambassador recorded it as the remark of the Prime Minister.

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【We can’t trust the data on GDP】

《The economic growth rate is by far lower? 》

When appreciating the economy on the Liaoning the Prime Minister said he paid attention to the three data of the electricity consumption, the amount of transportation by railway freight, and bank finance alone. The statistics on GDP was just the data of reference. He said it straight.

After his remarks came to light, the Economist which is the English economic magazine advocated to call those three data the index on Li Keqiang. When looking at the economy in China, it’s learned to be used as criteria.

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【We can’t trust the data on GDP】

《The economic growth rate is by far lower? 》

The author said he paid attention to the three data and looked at the economy in China. For example, the electricity consumption June is minus 1.3% when comparing it with the same month in the previous year. The amount of transportation by railway freight on the whole China also decreased.

But China announced GDP grew so much. Suspicion spread among us, especially a thing which is dubious is the period when calculating GDP and announcing it is very short.

As to Japan, when the first advanced announcement on the…

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【We can’t trust data on GDP】

《The economic growth rate is by far lower? 》

It was in the middle of August in the same year when the first advanced announcement on the numerical value on GDP from April to June in 2015 was issued in Japan. The second announcement was done September. It takes time like that so as to gathering the large amount of data and calculating the numerical value on GDP.

On the other hand, the period on calculating by the government in China is no more than two weeks. After that, the fixed value wasn’t announced. Is the ability on calculating by Chinese staff superior ….

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【We can’t trust data on GDP】

《The economic growth rate is by far lower? 》

Is the ability on calculating by Chinese staff in the government superior to the Japanese? If the data was manipulated artificially, why was the economic growth rate 7%?

The national people’s congress was held in China March in 2015, the Prime Minister Li Keqiang lowered the goal on the economic growth to 7%. He said it was impossible for 8% on the economic growth rate, but it’s possible if it’s around 7%.

In the next announcement, the number of 7% appeared. It’s very good timing! so the people all over the world….

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…so the people all over the world are doubtful.

The author said after we can trust the statistic data in China, the economy in the world may have been stable in the future.

【To two children family policy. Declining birth rate and aging society is early too much】

The author said we know the one child family policy has been abolished in China, but to be exact, it’s changed into two children family policy. It was the policy decided in the general meeting by the communist party in China October in 2015.

It is done by the government. It’s our common knowledge in Japan, but the communist…

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【Two children family policy. Declining birth rate and aging society is early too much】

…but the communist party decided all the policies in China, the way of expression is like that.

The communist party wrote clearly it would carry out the policy completely in which a couple have two children, but maintain the basic national policy on planned children birth.

It doesn’t always mean that they can have a baby as they want, but the communist party allowed the couple to have two children.

Declining birth rate and aging society has been serious in China as well, and if continued the one child…

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【Two children family policy. Declining birth rate and aging society is early too much】

…and if continued the one child family policy as it is, they would fall into the situation in which they can’t hope the development in economy, the sense of crisis was forced to change the policy. By the way, why did China carry out the one child family policy? Let’s look back the history on it.

The population is too much in China. The awareness of the issue was born after the new China was founded.

People’s Republic of China, what is called China, has been founded in 1949, and its population was some…

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【Two children family policy. Declining birth rate and aging society is early too much】

…and its population was some half billion and forty million then. Mao Zedong who was the father of building the nation was a believer on the thought that there is a power in number. The Chinese were encouraged with him to have a baby with the slogan, give birth to lots of children and increase the population. A mother who had lots of children was commended.

But the one who had a sense of crisis was the president on Beijing university. He insisted that without restraining the population, they would be…

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【Two children family policy. Declining birth rate and aging society which is early too much】

…they would be short of food in the future.

But Mao Zedong criticized his insistence severely. He said we had one mouth but two hands, so producing with two hands, it’s all right. The president was banished from Beijing university and was under house arrest.

Lots of soldiers were dead during the civil war in China. Dispatching troops to the Korean War and lots of the Chinese were dead on account of batteries of manpower. Moreover there were lots of the dead due to the Great Leap Forward.

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【Two children family policy. Declining birth rate and aging society is early too much】

Before long the confrontation between China and Soviet Union intensified, Mao Zedong prepared for a nuclear war against Soviet. Even if lots of the nations are dead owing to the nuclear war, he had to secure enough population so as to survive. It’s the plan for Mao Zedong.

As a result, the population reached some eight hundred and fifty million in China in 1969. The population increased more than two hundred million from building the nation. They recognized they were in difficulty, but even if they…

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【Two children family policy. Declining birth rate and aging society which is early too much】

…but even if they understood their crisis, they could change their plan as long as Mao Zedong was alive. If there is a despotic executive, the plan of managing the company is late, and the company would decline. It tends to happen at a management of the company in some country somewhere, and the same thing used to happen in China.

Mao Zedong was dead in 1967, and they were broke from his curse at last then. The one who used to be the president at Beijing University was broken from under arrest…

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【Two children family policy…】

The one who used to be the president at Beijing university was broken under home arrest and came back. The government in China has adopt the policy of restraining population from then. It’s the one child family policy.

《Birth control was done thoroughly every nook and cranny of the land》

There is a public stance of treating ethnic minority favorably in China, so the policy isn’t applied for the ethnic minority, but is done for the Han people alone.

The committee on giving a birth based on the plan of population in the nation was founded. It was an…

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【Two children family policy…】

《Birth control was done thoroughly every nook and cranny of the land》

The committee was an organization under the Cabinet. The committee appointed the ones who were engaged in the birth control from cities, towns, villages and residential area like community associations. Its number is one hundred and sixty thousand. They were imposed the system which was responsible for the control on the goal of the population.

The goal on the number of giving birth was fixed each place every year. The couple who was allowed to give birth was fixed at the workplace or area.

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【Two children family policy. Declining birth rate and aging society is early too much】

《Birth control was done thoroughly all over the nation》

The names on the couple were put on a facility in the area. Informing the people which family was allowed to give a birth and put on the social pressure so as to prevent other couples from giving birth and being pregnant.

Incentive money was paid to the couple who announced they had one child alone until the child became the age of fourteen, and the couple who gave a birth the second child was charged with the large amount of money on giving birth.

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【Two children family policy…】

《Birth control was done thoroughly in every nook and cranny of the land》

Moreover the salary on the couple at the workplace was cut off by 10% and their promotion and increasing salary were stopped.

Even if those things were done, a woman who was pregnant the second child turned up. When the woman who was unplanned gave a birth, even the ones who were engaged in the birth control were punished.

So the ones who were engaged in the birth control crowded around her house and put pressure on her so as to have an abortion.

But this extreme birth control wasn’t…

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【Two children family policy…】

《Birth control was done thoroughly all over the country》

But this extreme birth control wasn’t based on the law and its law has been set up in 2002, and the lawful ground was given for the first time, for China isn’t the nation ruled by the law.

Farmland tends to want a baby boy as labor and the pension system isn’t arranged enough, so there are lots of families after giving birth a boy and want others to raise him.

If a girl was born in that kind of family, she was made to be buried alive on the spot or raising her without turning in the certificate birth.

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【Two children family policy…】

《Birth control was done thoroughly all over the country》

Those kind of cases seemed to happen so often that it is said the population on China is by far more than a billion and three hundred million.

In addition, as the medical science has developed we can know the sex on the unborn baby quickly, so if it’s a girl, they have an abortion quickly. It seems to occur frequently.

As to the ratio of male to female, the male is from 103 to 107 and the female 100 in the natural world when having a baby.

On the other hand, woman is 100 and man is 118 in China.

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【Two children family policy…】

《birth control was done thoroughly all over the country》

There is an estimation that being at the age of getting married, the number of man who can’t find his partner would reach twenty six million in 2020.

If the nation intervenes in even pregnancy and childbirth, a strange society is born. There are lots of children who have neither uncle, aunt, nor cousins in China. The children who were brought up being self-centered too much are called little emperor in China.

The policy was changed this time, and does the birth rate go up? Raising only child carefully …

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Raising only child carefully and spending money on education. It’s the common sense in China at present. Even if they are allowed to have the second child, the child would not increase so much, lots of people seem to think like that. It’s too late. China becomes the aging society before it’s rich.

【Billionaires and people of speech have been abducted one after another】

Though it’s apt to be hidden by the news on the President Trump, the independence on Hong Kong has been exposed to the crisis at present. A billionaire whose nationality is Canada seemed to be abducted, so Hong Kong …

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【Billionaires and people of speech have been abducted one after another】

…so the independence on Hong Kong has been exposed to the risk again at present.

Hong Kong has been returned to China in 1997, and China said clearly it would guarantee the high autonomy in Hong Kong for fifty years. It’s one country, two systems. When being at the age of colony belonged to England, there used to be independent police and court in Hong Kong, and the police was famous for being clean then. Freedom of the press was also guaranteed and colorful of speech activities were developed by lots of newspapers….

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