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A diary in English
【漢字ゲーム】四字熟語の1字を取って繋いで行くゲーム

Science,English,and math 4th

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匿名さん
21/04/21 22:39(更新日時)

I will start from now on

(兄の英語スレをよろしく‼)


No.3244915 21/02/28 23:15(スレ作成日時)

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No.281 21/04/08 15:55
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《There is statistics where there is a nation》

Hideyoshi Toyotomi made an investigation on family registration in the whole Japan so as to grasp a military power to send troops to Korea.

Judging from those things, the author said he was sure that statistics has developed as the one which is indispensable for ruling nations.

If the one who ruled over the nation tries to collect tax or to draft people for a war, the ruler had to know how many people there were, or what kind of things they produced. It's natural.

《A modern nation has made much of statistics》

No.282 21/04/08 16:15
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《Modern nations have made much of statistics》

From the 18th century to 19th century when modern nations were formed, rulers recognized statistics was indispensable as base to rule countries more and more in each country, so arrangement on structure or investigations for statistics were done actively.

Then a modern national census for all the people who lived in the country was done. Population and contents of each household were investigated.

Napoleon used to say statistics is a budget for things. Without founding the budget, there is no public welfare.

No.283 21/04/08 16:44
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《Modern nations have made much of statistics》

A statistics bureau was set up in France in 1801. It was done first in the world.

An investigation which is done for all the groups as object without exceptions like the national census in modern nation is called a completely survey or census.

It was John Graunt in England who opened up a world on new statistics which draws a line between the investigation on population in the ancient nation a few thousands years ago.

Then churches preserved a number of dead people as data. As being based on the data, John...

No.284 21/04/08 17:06
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《Modern nations have made much of statistics》

As being based on the data, John gathered together a death rate which was preserved with each of age into a booklet. He analyzed the data and it turned out that the death rate was higher in childhood or it was higher in a city than a province.

Then the population on London was thought to be about two million, but he estimated it three hundred eighty four thousand through the data. He showed us we can estimate the whole number from the limited data.

Not only gathering together data simply, but by observing...

No.285 21/04/08 17:25
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《Modern nations have made much of statistics》

Not only gathering together the data simply, but by observing the data, we can find a law among complicated things which was apparently disorder, Grant showed us it, so his analysis was epoch-making.

The technical skill of Grant was succeeded to Edmond Halley in England who is well-known the one who discovered the comet of Halley.

Halley made Newton write Principia which is a famous book in the century, and he published it at his own expenses. He had lots of ...

No.286 21/04/08 17:44
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《Modern nations have made much of statistics》

Halley has lots of scientific achievements, and was the one who made a list for life for the first time among us the humankind, being based on data of birth and death in a town.

He showed us clearly there is a law on death of people, and a premium 保険料 in life insurance should be calculated, being based on death rate from each of age in a book which he published for himself.

There were some of companies of life insurance in England then, but the premium was established at random.

With the achievement...

No.287 21/04/08 18:21
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《Modern nations have made much of statistics》

With his achievements, the companies of life insurance have learned to be able to calculate rational premium at last.

Making an investigation, gathering together data, and arranging them into a numerical value, a list and a graph and grasping the tendency and nature shown by the whole data like the booklet gathered together by Grant or list for life by Halley. We call it descriptive statistics.

But the way which Halley and Grant adopted was extremely so simple that it is hard to say it leads to the modern ...

No.288 21/04/08 18:33
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《Modern nations have made much of statistics》

But the way which Grant and Halley adopted was extremely so simple that it is hard to say it leads to the modern descriptive statistics direct.

As being based on data which they got actually, even if they tried to solve an actual situation or mechanism on social phenomena, math itself had never developed enough then.

After that, theory on probability or normal distribution such as mathematical preparation was done by Pierre-Simon Laplace in France and Gauss in Germany, the one who tried to put into it ...

No.289 21/04/08 18:46
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《Modern nations have made much of statistics》

...the one who tried to put the theory on probability or normal distribution into practical use for the society appeared. It was Quetelet in Belgium.

The concept of average used to be used in the world of natural science alone until then, but Quetelet adopted it in the human society for the first time.

He thought we the humankind was also a part of the cosmos which should be harmonious with everything, even if each of individuals took into action with each own free will which wasn’t restricted from anything...

No.290 21/04/08 19:01
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《Modern nations have made much of statistics》

...if collecting data, we can find a scientific order in the whole society, Quetelet thought like that.

As he applied a statistical way which leads to the present age to the society for the first time, he is called a father on modern statistics.

If the history on statistics stopped at the descriptive statistics, statistics won’t be so important learning as at present.

As statistic inference 推計統計 has developed in the 20th century statistics becomes indispensable for in a life or a study at present age.

No.291 21/04/08 19:18
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《Modern nations have made much of statistics》

While we know its tendency and nature from data on hand, it’s the descriptive statistics, we presume the nature on the whole thing from the data which we gathered. It’s inference statistics.

It resembles when ladling up a spoonful of miso soup from the miso soup which was stirring in a pot and tasting its seasoning.

When having wanted to know the result on an election, sending out questionnaires to all the eligible voters, or if having wanted to control a quality on industrial goods, inspecting all of them.

No.292 21/04/08 19:41
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《Modern nations have made much of statistics》

Both of them aren’t realistic.

Then instead of giving it up, without inspecting all of them, we can’t know it, inspecting some of them and if being able to say something on its probability clearly, it is useful.

《An experiment on milk tea》

The statistics inference has started by Ronald Aylmer Fisher who was an English statistician.

He made a famous experiment at a tea party.

He held a tea party at a garden and enjoyed himself with some of his friends at the end of 1920s. Then a lady who love the tea said.

No.293 21/04/08 23:49
1000 ( 30代 ♀ Nzg71b )

>> 260 >>259 To the person who sent the message in no.259. 259にレスしてくれた方… 了解しました。

No.294 21/04/10 18:45
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《An experiment on a tea》

She said when making a milk tea, if pouring milk into a cup first or pouring tea into the cup first, it’s important, for its taste is different.

When hearing it gentlemen who joined in the tea party turned their noses up at her, and said, it couldn’t have been it, for if being mixed up once, it’s the same, and none of them took her seriously.

Then Fisher said, let’s make an experiment and proposed like the next.

They prepare for eight cups of milk tea where the lady didn’t look at. Four of them are pouring milk the first, and ...

No.295 21/04/10 19:17
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《An experiment on a tea》

...and other four are pouring tea first.

In the next offering the lady the eight cups of milk tea at random and make her guess each of milk tea, which the first one is, tea, or milk one by one, but the lady is informed to be offered two kinds of milk tea at random, and four of them which are pouring milk the first, and other four are tea the first beforehand.

When answering, she was perfect. She guessed whether the tea was the first or the milk was the first right, and other gentlemen around her said she happened to succeed in it...

No.296 21/04/10 19:50
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《An experiment on a tea》

...so the gentlemen tried not to admit they lost, but Fisher recognized that when she said nonsense, the probability of guessing all of eight cups of milk tea right was no more than 1.4%, so he concluded that she didn’t happen to guess them right. She could tell difference between the taste on milk tea.

Statistical inference has two mainstay.

The one is an estimation. Investigating a sample and estimating the characteristic on a population as probability.

The other is 検定. We get a data from the sample and verify its difference...

No.297 21/04/10 20:51
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《An experiment on a tea》

...and verifying the difference on the data from the sample is an accidental error or a difference which is something meaningful.

For example, an audience rating and a quick report of election results are an estimation and 検定 is proving a reliability on hypothesis that two cups of coffee prevents a cancer from generating.

The experiment which Fisher made was 検定 itself, and it’s the most famous experiment on statistical inference.

By the way, I’m sure I should express 検定 in English, but the one in math seems to be different ... 

No.298 21/04/10 21:11
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《An experiment on a tea》

...but the word of 検定 which was adopted in math and the one which we used every day life seem to be different, so I express it in Japanese.

《The most advanced statistics》

It’s what is called Bays statistics which is a big current in the field on statistics in the 21st century. It’s based on a theorem on Bays which Thomas Bays in English contrived.

The Bays statistics is the most advanced statistics in 21st century, but Bays himself was a clergyman and a mathematician in the beginning of the 18th century, but he’s paid....

No.299 21/04/11 07:54
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《The most advanced statistics》

...but he has been in the limelight in the 21st century. The theory which is put into practice in the modern society has been buried more than two hundred years. Why?

It is said it’s because the Bays statistics has two of the next natures.

1 An arbitrary choice is allowed. It means the statistic doesn’t need logical necessity.

2 Its calculation is sometimes complicated.

The nature on 1 the theorem on Bays had been criticized by mathematicians who loved strictness for a long time, but what we don’t need logical necessity...

No.300 21/04/11 08:12
燻し銀三 ( 60代 ♂ IJ7P0b )

【Statistics has changed nations】

《The most advanced statistics》

...but what we don’t need logical necessity means, in other words, it has a merit that the theory is able to be put into practice for a situation which isn’t strict. It has turned out recently. We can’t always establish all the conditions strictly at present age.

But in the Bays statistics, we’re allowed to establish a parameter, being based on our experience and common knowledge.

The parameter is some number which changes.

As a result, the Bays statistics allowed to adopt an intuition, so we can put into the Bays theory...

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